Sources say Universal and Paramount are both going Blu

Rumors just won't stop about the future of HD DVD, and while we try not to post all of them, some seem too believable to pass up. Our friend Bill Hunt, at the Digital Bits, -- still waiting on those permalinks, Bill -- is reporting that his "second to none" sources informed him that both Universal and Paramount are in the process of going blu. But don't bother asking 'em, because the same contracts that prevent them from switching now, prevent them from confirming the rumor. In addition, Bills sources tell him that while Paramount could make an announcement any day now, Universal's won't come until February -- at the earliest -- because "their contract period with the HD-DVD camp expires at the end of January."

[Via FormatWarCentral]

[gotsmart @ Jan 9th 2008 5:37PM]

Looks like Sony is finally going to win sweet revenge after losing out to VHS back in the day.

[brando_commando @ Jan 9th 2008 7:18PM]

The reason Blu-Ray won: When VHS beat out Betamax, people were simply scrounging for something, ANYTHING that worked because nobody had such technology. In this light VHS was the better regard. However, anyone upgrading to HD these days is looking for better quality and willing to pay more to get it. Thus, HD DVD was mistaken in thinking people would take cheap over high-tech. The world is different.

[MasterCKO @ Jan 9th 2008 7:56PM]

@brando: interesting argument. I think that I kind of agree. The early adopters of this generation's market definitely were willing to pay more as a whole, I think. It always seemed to me that the BDA's strategy was "don't sweat the price too much fellow BDA-mates, just win the battle of perception and win on our superior features, the mainstream prices will take care of themselves once we hit mainstream." They basically focused on winning the early adopters first on the stuff that matters to early adopters before looking to mainstream, whereas HD-DVD seemed to want to hit the mainstream market immediately. Which, if you have read the Chasm series of marketing books, is a no-no.

Plus Sony did a much better job building an alliance of companies around their technology than Toshiba did - that part's pretty plain.

[ComradeZ @ Jan 9th 2008 8:05PM]

@brando, the reason blu-ray prevailed is really simple. More studios on board, and the imbalance never tipped over in HD-DVD's favor. MS/Toshiba could've done a couple of things to improve their chances: 1) Release lo-cost RW drives to get the geeks in line. Didn't happen, so they never got the leap on blu-ray technology. 2) MS could've went whole hog and released a XBOX360 with an internal HD-DVD drive. The fact that they refused to do so says more than anything else that even they didn't have full confidence in the outcome.

As far as tech, no, most people didn't care about 7.1 surround or an extra theoretical capacity. The picture was good enough for both. But if you don't have the software, it doesn't matter how good the hardware is.

[E71 @ Jan 9th 2008 8:30PM]

Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes!

[KiraXD @ Jan 9th 2008 9:05PM]

@Comradz

1 thing i believe could have had a huge effect on the win of HD-DVD: Xbox 360.

If MS included inside the 360 an HD-DVD drive instead of a standard DVD drive... the year it had over PS3 (a huge chunk of blu-ray support) would have been immense. i understand the decision on MS's end, but i think toshi should have shelled out the additional cost to them just for that leg up.

[Poom @ Jan 10th 2008 5:23AM]

You know... Everyone keeps saying Microsoft should have put an internal HD DVD drive since the start. I actually think other wise. Not putting HD DVD drive is one of the many reasons the 360 is much more successful than the PS3. I find it pretty obvious why MS didn't bother putting an internal HD DVD drive. Putting a HD DVD/Blu ray drive adds so much more cost to the console, not to mention delaying it getting into the market as we have seen with the PS3. This is why the PS3 isn't so successful; it's late and expensive. This is why the 360 is much more successful; it's early and cheaper.

[Eric H @ Jan 10th 2008 8:31AM]

I bet Toshiba wishes they would have gave Microsoft a killer deal on some HD-DVD drives right about now!

[Jeebus @ Jan 10th 2008 1:01PM]

Blu-ray won for the same reason VHS won: higher capacity.

[Chebwa @ Jan 9th 2008 5:37PM]

Like rats from a sinking ship.

Multi billion dollar rats.

[OneAboveAll @ Jan 9th 2008 5:44PM]

At this point does anyone even care? So Sony won one finally. Just don't F*ck this up Sony. I'm sure you will find a way to. I'm just ready for some to crack the full BD coding.

[Aaron @ Jan 9th 2008 8:26PM]

BD has already been cracked. Where have you been?

[TylerM @ Jan 9th 2008 9:51PM]

AnyDVD can't crack certain Blu-ray discs.

[zargon @ Jan 9th 2008 5:45PM]

Bill Hunt is a biased piece of shit, I wouldn't hold much to the crap he spews until respectable sources confirm it.

It is only a matter of time though, but it could be tomorrow or it could be next year.

[ShadowGod @ Jan 9th 2008 6:33PM]

Yeah this Digital Bits guy is the most biased BR fanboy I've seen in awhile.

[theletterj @ Jan 9th 2008 6:59PM]

Problem is that now that the rumor is out, true or not, it will have a negative effect on HD-DVD. It's like a negative PR blast, but with a "rumor" disclaimer on it. Commonly used by sleazy PR all the time, and definitely not beyond a fanboy tech blogger. Even if this does prove to be false, in the time it takes to disclaim it, the damage will have already been done. You can't unring a bell.

[MasterCKO @ Jan 9th 2008 7:46PM]

There's also that one major un-rumor doing major damage: Warner going Blu-Ray.

[Danny @ Jan 9th 2008 5:45PM]

Sony made sure this time they won unlike Beta Max. They had support from TONS of companies and had the help of a console to push their format into more homes than before. If this holds true, I wonder how long before Toshiba goes Blu.

[Jon @ Jan 9th 2008 7:59PM]

Not to mention they also own a movie studio this time, so content wise they are ahead when they launched Betamex. What does Toshiba has? Nothing.

[Andre @ Jan 10th 2008 1:02AM]

While the PS3 certainly helped Blu-Ray sales along, the price that came with it hasn't been so good to the PS3...

[Sam Winter @ Jan 11th 2008 3:59AM]

@Andre
I agree with that. the PS3 did suffer immensely for waiting for all the awesome hardware e.g., the Blue lasers and CELL chip. I do however think it was a HUGE boon to Sony's Blu-ray and that they will easily make up for the lossed revenue in Blu-ray and game royalties. Besides, I think the superior hardware of the PS3 is already starting to see some awesome software titles that will bring the console into it's prime in 2008. I just recently bought a 40GB and am incredibly impressed. I look at it like this:

PS3 = Xbox360($349?) + Blu-Ray player ($300+) + Media extender (AppleTV $299) + Cell chip programming add-on card($XXX ?)

[EbonyDad @ Jan 9th 2008 5:59PM]

Looks like it is time to buy that PS3.

[Gadget Chick @ Jan 9th 2008 6:10PM]

took the words right out of my mouth

[Zak @ Jan 9th 2008 6:29PM]

Mine too. I've been holding off partly because of this format war. I think it's safe to say now that anything I buy in Blu-Ray format will probably be supported for a while.

[Ty @ Jan 9th 2008 5:48PM]

Time of death of HD DVD, 4:48 CST.

[SteveMB @ Jan 9th 2008 11:15PM]

Central? Eastern?

[superfresh @ Jan 9th 2008 5:49PM]

@ Bill,

I've read The Digital Bits for years, but c'mon man, it's 2008. Let's get that site up to speed. I wanna post, bro! Throw a site search in, too.

[Geoffrey Sperl @ Jan 9th 2008 9:51PM]

And an RSS feed. I've asked him for that one quite a few times.

[Ireland @ Jan 9th 2008 6:10PM]

They think it's all over?

It is now.

[bry2an @ Jan 9th 2008 5:54PM]

So the bottom is about to fall out it seems.

[Jon Doe @ Jan 9th 2008 5:58PM]

So when the hell are we going to see sub $200 BR players? I picked up a HD DVD player on Amazon this past November for $160. Blu Ray may win the content war but they can go fuck themselves with players only now reaching $300.

[Justin Moravetz @ Jan 9th 2008 10:30PM]

http://www.any3d.com/pics/IMG_0144.jpg
$149 at bestbuy
Nuf said.

[Michael @ Jan 10th 2008 8:58AM]

@Justin

Open Box does not count. Not everyone can get an open box any day they so see fit.

...although that does give me some ideas about how to get me an open box...

[Fred @ Jan 10th 2008 1:46PM]

Sony's cheapest BD player on SonyStyle before the Warner announcement: $299.

The same unit now: $399. Anyone who thinks the price of Blu-ray players is going to hit $200 for the average consumer after HD-DVD is dead is insane.

[Joel Stephen @ Jan 9th 2008 6:01PM]

So since the PS3 arguably put BD on top and Toshiba helped make and now control the production of the Cell Processor does that mean they committed suicide and doesn't that also mean on some level they won?

[Jagannath A @ Jan 9th 2008 8:51PM]

you sir are a genius

[Gator @ Jan 11th 2008 6:33PM]

If any of this is true, then, IMHO, Universal and Paramount better say something sooner than later as they (Universal more than Paramount) released new HD DVDs yesterday and presumably will be scheduled to release more next week. If nothing else, they at least owe the people that bought their HD DVD product a fair warning that they will be switching, so we can act accordingly.

BTW, it certainly appears that the inclusion of BD in the Playstation will go down as a great, maybe brilliant business decision, as that clearly won/will win the battle for Sony.

[DepecheSA @ Jan 9th 2008 6:04PM]

Red is Dead!!! Long live the Blu!!!

[Green @ Jan 9th 2008 6:27PM]

The blue knight rules! The red knight sucks the big one! You're going down red knight! Down, down, down. Red knight's goin' down. Down, down, down. Red knights down

[kaztm @ Jan 9th 2008 6:04PM]

"Sources say Universal and Paramount are both going Blu"
But Engadget will stand by HD DVD and die with it, right?

[aoeu00 @ Jan 9th 2008 6:06PM]

Yeah, I don't care that Blu-Ray appears to be the winner here. I care about not forking over tons of cash for a player.

So since we apparently have no more competition, will players get below $200? It doesn't look like it which is a shame.

I still don't see how this is a 100% win for consumers UNLESS the players come down in price considerably.

Sadly, I'm glad I didn't buy an HD player.. because if I would have (over the last few months), I would have gone HD DVD.

[MasterCKO @ Jan 9th 2008 6:18PM]

Oh god. Do you not know what "competition" is? Keep in mind that HD DVD wasn't getting cheap because of market forces, it was because Toshiba was willing to take massive losses to set their prices low.

There are something like 10 mfr's making BD products. Once HD DVD is dead there will be more. There is plenty of competition. They will all compete with each other to make a product that bests their rivals on features and comes in with a better price, but will do it in a way that earns them money. Especially now that the BD appears to be the one that will be the standard for this generation of optical storage medium. It *will* become mass market, and prices *will* be driven down. Or did you miss when that happened with every other standard media format in the history of the world?

[newgalactic @ Jan 9th 2008 6:43PM]

MasterCKO -
What your saying is true, but still conjecture. Fact is, BD players are expensive. Fact is (soon to be "was"), HD DVD players are cheaper. Whatever the reason may be, HD DVD provided a great HD experience for sub $200. BD couldn't/hasn't done that yet, even with the many manufacturers competing with each other.

...for me, it's upscaling DVD until I can download HD content properly.

[Jeff @ Jan 9th 2008 8:07PM]

And as we all know, prices for electronics only ever go up, right?

[MasterCKO @ Jan 9th 2008 8:27PM]

@newgalactic:

That what I said was conjecture is a very good point. But it is based on such a large amount of evidence that to argue that BD won't become sub 3 or 200 in the near future seems to be somewhat intellectually dishonest, at best. I know that that's not exactly what you're saying, but a lot of people in these threads do say this.

Also, you might missed the part where I said that prices would fall but in way that makes the companies money. That means that they won't subsidize the prices down. As components (particularly the laser) become commoditized and the companies' margins go up, and mainstream adoption goes up and therefore the competition goes up, then the market will make sure that the price will go down.

If you want low prices, you are a mainstream consumer, not an early adopter. Being mainstream, you usually need patience. Toshiba tricked you into thinking that you didn't with HD DVD but as I said before, Toshiba was taking losses on purpose to try to edge out BD. Its price scale does not represent a normal healthy market and no CE company disinterested in the technology would want to do something like that.

[rav97 @ Jan 9th 2008 8:29PM]

Before Blu-ray won, if you wanted access to all HD content available, your options were: either (a) a $200 HD-DVD + a $400 Blu-ray players, or (b) a single $1000 HD-DVD/Blu-ray combo player.
Now, assuming Universal & Paramount switch sides, if you want access to all HD content available, you'll only need a $400 Blu-ray player.
It looks to me like you'll be saving money.

[Snowdog @ Jan 9th 2008 8:42PM]

Well clearance of dead tech is always cheap. I am sure you will soon be able to pick them up for under $100.

Seriously why do you think there are about a Dozen companies making Blu Ray players and only Toshiba doing HD-DVD? Because toshiba was doing the only thing it could to try to push against the tide, paying studios to be with them, paying people to buy the players(subsidizing the price). The CEO should be taken behind the barn and given a good beating for wasting stock holder money on this ego trip.

It was clear that BR was the eventual winner since the beginning. But Toshiba chose to buck almost all the other hardware companies and essentially go it alone with an inferior standard.

[Justin Moravetz @ Jan 9th 2008 11:41PM]

Here you go, best buy has some

http://www.any3d.com/pics/IMG_0144.jpg

[off2bali2 @ Jan 10th 2008 3:56AM]

It's called supply and demand! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

Here's an exert from an answer on one of my microeconomics exams:

Q.S. = Quantity Supply
S = Supply
Q.D. = Quantity Demand
D = Demand

Change in Q.S. - shift along supply curve; caused: change in price
Change in S - shift in supply; caused:
1) price of resources
2) technology
3) # of sellers
4) expectations of future prices
5) taxes/subsidies
6) gov’t regulations

Change in Q.D. - movement from one row to another in demand schedule or along the same demand curve; cause: change in price
Change in D -
1) income
2) preferences
3) prices of related good
4) # of buyers
5) future prices
6) taxes, spending, interest rates

-----

Simple Answer: Yes prices will drop as long as Blu-Ray is the "winner". How quickly? (Answer: see above section for guidance)

[Richard @ Jan 9th 2008 6:09PM]

Hi OneAboveAll

As I work for Sony - i felt compelled to reply to your comment about sony not F***ing up this time
If you must know the board of directors for the Blu Ray Association are made up of Hitachi, LG, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, and Sony.
Just because Sony push this format because they belive in it - it is not purely down to sony to make it happen but, with the support of the other brands also. It is a team effort to make BluRay succeed.
Hope that clears things up for you before you rant on again.
R